STABILITY IN Chad was precarious at best under President Idriss Déby’s reign. His sudden death exacerbated political turmoil and reignited debates about Chad’s politics. Although Chad is officially recognized as a democratic country with multiple parties and regular elections, the reality is quite different. Déby, a redoubtable autocrat, had maintained a tight grip on the country for three decades with the full support of the military council and foreign powers. With Déby out of the picture, the country is being swarmed by domestic political clashes and international attention as rebel forces and the military-backed transitional government disagree on how to run the government.

What is the power dynamic in Chad?

   From the early 1980s, Chad has been subject to countless coups and allegations of election tampering under Déby’s rule [1]. In 1982, Déby participated in his first domestic coup led by then Prime Minister Hissène Habré. He made a name for himself as a savvy military strategist and rose to the position of Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces. Relations between Déby and Habré soured, however, when allegations of human rights violation began plaguing Habré’s one-party regime. Déby took advantage of Habré’s dwindling public support and staged his own successful coup in 1990. Three years later, a national democracy conference arranged a transitional government with Déby as the interim president and for democratic elections to take place. Déby officially became the president in Chad’s first multiparty elections in 1996 amidst rumors of election fraud staining his electoral victory.

   The strong opposition against Déby was intensified by his controversial legal reform. One of the most infamous reform efforts was the 2006 amendment to the constitution that eliminated presidential term limits. Diplomats and activists argued that a lack of term limits went against Chad’s democracy. The process for passing this law, too, was suspected of being undemocratic. At the time, Chad’s National Electoral Commission stated that 5.6 million citizens registered to vote for the proposed referendum. However, the Coordination of Parties in Defense of the Constitution (CPDC), a group of approximately 30 domestic parties, stated that only four million Chadians were eligible to vote at most. Nevertheless, this referendum was accepted, and Déby won five more terms until his untimely death in 2021. In addition, he abolished the office of prime minister to further consolidate his power against the protests of Chadians [2].

   Along with explicit efforts to maintain his dictatorship, Déby was criticized for failing to improve Chad’s economy. According to the United Nations Development Programme’s human development index, Chad consistently ranks as one of the poorest countries despite possessing precious natural resources such as uranium and gold. Chad also pumps out around 130,000 barrels of crude oil on a daily basis, which amounts to billions of dollars annually [3]. Almost 80% of this oil revenue was initially intended for agriculture, health, education, and infrastructure, but President Déby instead reallocated the investment funds to purchase weapons to counter domestic resistance.

   Despite countless coup attempts by rebel factions, Déby managed to keep a firm grip on his power. One factor behind his constant triumph over rebel forces is France’s support. For example, when the autocrat faced rebellions in 2006 and 2008, France provided intelligence to the Chadian military and shot warning shots against rebels. Over the years, the European nation became less discreet in assisting Déby’s regime [4]. In 2019, France launched airstrikes against rebels that reached the capital at Chad’s request and justified their actions by branding the rebels as “armed terrorists.”

Live by the sword, die by the sword

   On April 11, Chad held the 2021 presidential election, with Déby seeking a sixth consecutive term that would enable him to stay in office until 2033. As many had expected, Déby won the election by a landslide of 79.32% [5]. However, the continuation of his rule was not in the cards for Déby. Merely a few hours after he was declared the official winner of the elections, Chad's military announced that Déby died of injuries sustained in a battle against a domestic rebel group, Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT).

   FACT reportedly launched the attacks from Libya, where the group’s base is located. Since FACT’s foundation in 2016, the rebels have stated that their main goal was ending Déby’s dictatorial regime after accusing him of election fraud in 2016 [6]. The group made a pact with Khalifa Haftar, the Supreme Commander of the Libyan National Army (LMA); FACT would carry out Haftar’s orders in exchange for the provision of heavy weaponry that far surpassed the equipment of other Chadian rebel forces [7]. In response to Déby’s announcement of running for another term, FACT invaded Chad’s northern border on April 11 and planned to push all the way to the country’s capital, N’Djamena. By doing so, the group intended to halt the 2021 election, hoping to gain support from Déby’s political rivals and the voters who wanted Déby out of office. Before they could move further in, however, they encountered the Chadian army, which ultimately resulted in the battle where Déby met his demise.

   The news of Déby’s death spread shockwaves across the country. With the government undergoing an abrupt shift in power, citizens grew wary of the heightened risk of military engagement. The people were also curious about the exact circumstances surrounding Déby’s death. Aside from reporting that Déby received gunshot wounds, the army withheld further information regarding his death. According to an official report, Déby was visiting military troops in the north on the day of his killing, which many found puzzling; it was an unnecessary risk during his re-election campaign. The speculations regarding his death have only aggravated the atmosphere of growing uncertainty in Chad.

Rising political tensions

   As soon as Déby’s death was confirmed, Chad officials rushed to salvage order in a rapidly deteriorating situation. The government and the national assembly have been dismissed since. The current constitution has been halted and replaced with a transitional charter—the contents of which will be determined by the head of the military council. The now-suspended constitution explicitly states that in the event of the president’s death, the speaker of the assembly holds presidential power and leads the transition to a more permanent solution. However, the military council named Déby’s son, Mahamat Idriss Déby, as the interim president for the next 18 months [8]. These radical changes have been met with resistance from rebel factions and opposition parties. FACT has expressed its frustration at Mahamat’s appointment as president and has vowed to take the capital. 

   Even before Déby’s death, activist groups have long demanded fair elections, but their peaceful demonstrations have always been shut down by brutal police forces. One of the activist groups, Forum of Civil Society Organizations of Chad (FOSCIT), condemned the suppression of peaceful demonstration on April 27 in N’Djamena in response to the military takeover [9]. On the same day, FOSCIT asked citizens to participate in a national mourning event on April 30 to honor those who were killed during the demonstration and to continue “demand[ing] a return to constitutional order.” While the transitional government has sparked considerable protests among civil and activist groups across the country, the likelihood of these groups’ demands being met is uncertain considering the interference of outside interests.

   The death of a long-time president has been a cause for concern to the international community. Throughout his presidential career, Déby served as a trusted strategic ally to France and the United States. Now that Déby is gone, the Western influence over Chad could shatter and hinder the West’s fight against Islamic extremism in West Africa and the Sahel [10]. Chad has over 5,000 French troops as part of a military mission to fight Jihadists. France is more interested in Chad’s stability than its democracy, and President Macron of France has vowed to support Mahamat and the transitional government’s actions. While the United States also has a vested interest in the stability of Chad, the White House made a statement “support[ing] a peaceful transition of power in accordance with the Chadian constitution,” suggesting subtle disagreement with France and Chad’s current transitional government [11]. In contrast to President Biden’s subtlety, the African Union’s Peace and Security Council has openly warned against Chad’s “dynastic coup” and has called on Chadian officials to “expeditiously” restore full government authority to the proper civilian authorities.

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   President Déby’s death made one point very clear; the supposed stability under his rule was merely a front. His unexpected death has revealed fundamental flaws in his rule that have always been there: a tangled mess of political and economic instability, reports of election tampering, civil unrest, and divided international opinions. While Mahamat’s transitional government has officially been approved, the opposition will likely not let the next 18 months go peacefully as they have vowed to have their demands be heard.

[1] Africa News

[2] BBC

[3] The Guardian

[4] African Arguments

[5] DW News

[6] Reuters

[7] Financial Times

[8] BBC

[9] New Africa

[10] DW News

[11] Reuters