THE INTERNATIONAL Space Station (ISS), a collaborative project between multiple countries led by the United States and Russia, has orbited the Earth, conducting many missions and scientific experiments since 1998. The ISS, symbolic of the vital post-Cold War partnership between the “two space superpowers”––the United States and Russia––, is facing the possibility of dissolution with Russia declaring that it will no longer extend the partnership that is scheduled to end in 2024. While the United States is willing to extend its partnership with all members of the ISS until 2030, Russia wishes to establish its own space station and become a leader in space exploration. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and other rapid changes in the international community are events that have increased the likelihood of Russia leaving the ISS and establishing its own station. Russia’s long history of space exploration, with it being the first nation to send a man to space in 1961 and hosting the ISS with the United States for decades, will take a different turn with its decision to leave the ISS, an action that is already yielding considerable consequences.

The Russian Orbital Space Station (ROSS)

   Russia declared its plans to withdraw from the ISS consortium after 2024. It is still uncertain whether Russia will follow through with the promise, but the nation’s plans to establish the Russian Orbital Service Station (ROSS) show its commitment to creating an independent space station. Rocosmos, Russia's federal space agency, has already drafted a general idea for ROSS. The first phase of the outpost, scheduled to initiate by 2028, is assumed to consist of a core module, supply ship, and transport vehicle. The second phase, starting in 2030, entails adding two large modules[1]. However, the station’s design, orbit placement, and orientation have not yet been confirmed. Vladimir Solovyov—an ISS flight director, designer of RSC Energia[2], and a major contractor for the human spaceflight program in Russia––explains that it is significant for Russia to announce its decisions for an independent Russian space program ahead of announcing a definite date for its withdrawal from the ISS[1]. Despite not having a concrete design for ROSS, Roscosmos has already aid the practical foundations for its forthcoming ISS departure as an opportunity to transition to its new outpost. 

   Russia’s plan to discontinue its partnership with the West and grow more autonomous in space explorations is strengthened considering that it has not yet articulated its stake in joining other ISS partners in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Artemis program—a program that endeavors to send humans to the moon by 2025. Another possible reason why Russia plans to pursue ROSS may be to prioritize Russian interests and make its own independent mark in space exploration. According to Solovyov, as “Russian science on the ISS and…on the Soviet/Russian space station Mir, has not delivered a great return[1]” Russia will use ROSS to practice a “different ‘philosophy’ of human spaceflight[1].” Russia hopes to make significant achievements with a new approach to space exploration that is influenced by Russia’s own independent ideology. Though it is unclear how the new Russian space station will differentiate itself and its missions from the ISS, for now it seems that ROSS’s function will be to help with journey preparations to Mars or the moon. Nevertheless, it should be noted that a detailed timeline for ROSS’s space expeditions have not yet been proposed[1].

Will Russia be able to leave the ISS?

   There were concerns regarding the possibility of Russia leaving the ISS both before and after it announced its withdrawal. For example, NASA claims that there has not been a certified confirmation backing Russia’s withdrawal[3]. Russia’s threats to pull out of the ISS seem inconclusive as they were declared through a  “‘series of vague statements,’” which is why NASA believes that Russia will continue to work with it until 2028[4]. Especially given the “ambitious timeline” of the creation of ROSS, the likelihood of Russia leaving the ISS and building its independent space station are uncertain[4]. Financial concerns also obscure Roscosmos’s plans to leave the ISS. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year, the nation now faces heavy international sanctions that are affecting Moscow’s preparations for future space programs. U.S. astronaut Dr. Leroy Chiao also explained that Russia lacks the financial budget to establish its own space station; even if Russia were financially able to establish a space station, it would take the nation a significant amount of time to set it up. Without the Russian government’s “financial commitment,” Dr. Leroy stated, Russia’s talks about creating a Russian outpost would hold less weight[5]. 

   There were additional comments that pointed to how Russia's plans to conclude its orbital cooperation with the United States would take at least six more years, and that Russia had hinted at its ambitions to send cosmonauts—Russian astronauts—to the ISS only after it established its own outpost. Moreover, as mentioned before, a detailed timetable on the establishment and functioning of ROSS has not been set, and it is unclear whether Russia will be able to build its own orbital outpost in the first place given its lack of financial resources[6]. Despite Moscow’s proclamations to leave the ISS, some experts are skeptical whether Russia would actually take the bold step to leave the station. Kathryn Lueders, the Associate Administrator of NASA’s Space Operations Mission Directorate and the overseer of many logistical ISS operations, stated that there has not been “any indication at any working level that anything’s changed,” and that “NASA’s relations with Roscosmos remain ‘business as usual[6].’”

Ultimately, Russia’s departure from the ISS would not bode well for all parties involved. From the perspective of the United States and other Western countries, it would lead to practical complications as the composition of the ISS requires that its partners become interdependent. Whilst Russia provisions for the propulsion of the ISS and prevents the platform from collapsing, the United States provisions for the powering of the station. Therefore, “any abrupt withdrawal of Russian cooperation aboard the ISS could seriously disrupt a centerpiece of NASA’s human spaceflight program[6].” Russia's departure from the ISS would not only expedite the termination of NASA’s space program altogether but would also affect other countries’ research efforts and place constraints on their ambitions to commercialize space. In particular, the withdrawal of Russia would negatively impact research on space as Russia has been a key player in conducting research on radiation and the effects of weightlessness on human health—an area of incomplete research that is essential for astronauts to take extended journeys to Mars[7]. 

   Conversely, although Russia’s departure from the ISS would lead to repercussions for the entirety of the program, separating itself from its Western partners would damage Russia’s own space program as well. Dr. Pavel Luzin, a Russian space and military analyst, states that “…the Russian space programme is impossible without space cooperation with the West[8].” As the success rate of Russia’s space program is low without the support of Western countries, Russia would have to substitute the West with another partner. It is speculated that Russia might work with China’s space program Tiangong to realize its plans. Recently, Tiangong launched a laboratory module that included essential units for its proposed space station, further increasing the possibility of Russia working with China[7]. However, as Tiangong is not placed in an orbit accessible by Russian launchpads, the possibility of a China-Russia space partnership is questionable. This unfortunate information shifts the focus of Russia’s future plans from a Russia-China partnership to an autonomous Russian-led space station for lunar exploration. Luzin also called the notion of a Russia-China space partnership a “fiction,” highlighting that “The Chinese have looked at Russia as a prospective partner up until 2021 and have stopped since then. Today, Russia cannot offer anything to China in terms of space[7].” Although many are doubtful about the feasibility of the Russia-China partnership, it is clear that Russia definitely considers the partnership a viable option for its future space plans. With China taking steps to strengthen its space program and with Russia’s recent decision to leave the ISS, the prospects for a harmonious partnership with China have increased, especially as China is the possessor of the only ISS-independent space station currently in orbit[7].

International implications

   While one could believe that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine decreased any future possibilities of U.S.-Russian collaborative space efforts, the two countries’ joint efforts have, surprisingly enough, “appeared relatively unharmed” for now[5]. For example, an agreement between the United States and Russia authorizing Russian and U.S. astronauts and cosmonauts to travel to each other’s spacecraft stations is still valid. This is a sign that the two nations’ collaboration is held in high regard, which lessens anxieties that Russia’s departure from the ISS would lead to a termination of all U.S.-Russian diplomatic efforts[8].

   Even though Russia’s invasion of Ukraine did not unequivocally end U.S.-Russian cooperation, other areas of communal efforts have been affected. One instance of the Ukraine war affecting United States-Russia relations is the European Space Agency (ESA) halting its cooperation with Roscosmos to send a rover to Mars. Another example is Russia’s extraction of its Soyuz spacecraft from French Guiana, an ESA launch site. Nevertheless, with former Russian Space Chief Dmitry Rogozin stating that Russia would not consent to prolong the partnership with the ISS after 2024 without the United States lifting sanctions on the Russian companies it has blacklisted, tensions between the United States and Russia are expected to remain[9]. 

   Russia’s decision to leave the ISS and end its partnership with the United States is especially disappointing when considering the two nations’ combined impact on the history of space exploration. Their relationship dates back to the Apollo-Soyuz mission in 1975, the first joint international space mission with a human crew[7]. The long-lasting space liaison between the two countries was envisioned as a means to cultivate positive relations even amid rising diplomatic agitations. The partnership––an emblem of the post-Cost War collaboration between the superpowers that marked a halt to global competition, the moon race, and the Apollo landings––could be the last remaining vestiges of cooperation between the two countries[7]. This is a cause for concern because the future of United States-Russia relations remains bleak with Russia’s decision to no longer be a part of U.S.-led space programs[6]. 

   Other concerns remain, such as Russia’s history of detrimental actions toward the ISS. One example is Russia blowing up a nonoperational spy satellite with the intention to crash the ISS altogether[10]. Other instances of disruption include Roscosmos’s proclamations to put an end to its collaborative scientific experiments in the ISS and the cessation of rocket engine sales to NASA. More recently, there are concerns regarding Russia’s continued politicization of the space station. This year, Russian cosmonauts sparked controversy by releasing images of them celebrating Russia’s conquest of Luhansk, a city in the eastern region of Ukraine[8]. Even back in 2014, Russia used its significant position in the ISS to coerce the United States to acknowledge its annexation of Crimea. During the annexation of Crimea, Russia moved its astronaut training program to Crimea and Roscosmos stated that it would cease transporting NASA astronauts—an act that would stop all NASA astronauts from accessing the ISS. If such a situation were to be repeated today, the ISS could once again risk becoming a “bargaining chip” in Russia and the United States’ political interactions[10]. However, the actual chances of this happening are not high, especially as the United States is no longer entirely reliant on Roscosmos for ISS transportation with Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) conveying NASA astronauts to the space station as of 2020. 

   Russia’s past conflicts with the ISS, combined with recent events such as its invasion of Ukraine, could potentially prompt the United States to find alternatives to sustain its space programs without Russia’s help. NASA has, in fact, already started to devise measures to make sure that the ISS is functional without Russia’s cooperation. While NASA maintains the “appearance of normalcy[10]” regarding the ISS, notable actions have been taken behind the scenes. For example, Northrop Grumman, a U.S. pioneering defense technology and multinational aerospace firm, has offered to assemble a propulsion system that would replace the Russian system. Elon Musk, a U.S.-based entrepreneur and founder of SpaceX, has also remarked on providing help to the ISS with his company’s technology.

   Similar to how U.S. sanctions and an aggravating United States-Russia relationship have affected many of their collaborative space projects, abating Russia-Europe relations has also affected space programs between the two entities. As briefly mentioned before, in response to the ESA’s sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine invasion, Roscosmos halted launching its satellites from French Guiana. Roscosmos also faced a deadlock with the United Kingdom regarding plans to send 36 satellites into orbit; Roscosmos needed to dispatch the satellites on March 4, but refused to do so unless the United Kingdom made claims to prevent the satellites from being used for military purposes. These examples show that while Russia has repeatedly used its position in international space cooperation for its own political gains, the professional relationship between Russia and the West has endured regardless. Russia’s withdrawal from the ISS is thus the last straw that could end any responsibilities or goodwill it has towards the West. 

*                 *                 *

   The ISS is possibly witnessing the end of an era with Russia declaring its withdrawal. The termination of NASA’s ISS by the end of the decade has been forecasted and there are expectations that many countries will build their own independent space stations, as seen by China’s efforts to complete their Tiangong project by the end of 2022[8]. As of now, Russia’s declarations still lack certitude, and the future of space explorations appears rather unclear. Nonetheless, Russia’s departure is sure to perturb the international community at a large scale. 

[1] Space.com

[2] RSC Energia: The largest and most significant Russian rocket enterprise

[3] The Guardian

[4] Gizmodo

[5] BBC

[6] Reuters

[7] The New York Times

[8] The Guardian

[9] Reuters

[10] Vox