THIS YEAR heralds the culmination of the inaugural Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement, a monumental event in international climate policy. The GST is a periodic, comprehensive review of the collective progress made by countries in achieving the long-term goals outlined in the Agreement[1]. It serves as a vital tool to assess and enhance the effectiveness of global climate action. The significance of this year underscores the necessity to examine the progress of key regional players in meeting their climate commitments. In this article, The Yonsei Annals will specifically focus on the progress made by East Asian powerhouses—Korea, Japan, and China—in fulfilling their climate pledges.

Paris Agreement

   The Paris Agreement is an important international agreement aimed at fighting climate change. It helps lower the amount of greenhouse gasses and helps people prepare for and adjust to the impacts of a changing climate. Designed to engage all nations, regardless of the level of development, the Agreement fosters a united effort to counter climate change. At its core, the Agreement seeks to limit global temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels[1].

   Established in 1992, the Paris Agreement builds upon the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as a vital international climate policy[2]. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997 as the UNFCCC's first legally binding treaty, faced difficulties in achieving its goal: reducing the emissions of six greenhouse gasses to 5.2% below 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012[2]. This limited effectiveness resulted from the absence of major emitters like the United States and a lack of mandatory targets for developing nations. To address these issues and the escalating climate crisis, 196 countries gathered at the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, negotiating a more robust and inclusive climate accord, which was ratified in 2016[3].

Key components

   The Paris Agreement's structure emphasizes the continuous enhancement of global climate ambitions and actions through interconnected components: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), transparency, and mitigation. NDCs outline each country's emissions targets, adaptation measures, and climate initiatives[1]. A robust transparency framework supports the NDCs by ensuring regular reporting on emissions and implementation. This framework also facilitates a five-year GST, which helps evaluate progress and adjust contributions accordingly.

   Importantly, the Agreement highlights the critical role of mitigation as an essential aspect of addressing climate change. Countries are required to not only reduce emissions but also to enhance carbon sinks, such as forests and other natural systems that absorb and store carbon dioxide (CO2)[4]. By focusing on reduction and storage, the Agreement aims for a comprehensive approach to achieving a balance of greenhouse gas emissions by the latter half of the century[4]. This dual strategy highlights the need for nations to adopt innovative measures to tackle the multifaceted challenges posed by climate change.

Importance of East Asia in global climate action

   Assessing the progress of Korea, Japan, and China concerning the Paris Agreement is crucial, due to their significant influence on global greenhouse gas emissions and their capacity to shape climate policies worldwide. Collectively, these three countries accounted for approximately 32.5% of the world's total CO2 emissions in 2019, with China being the largest emitter at 28%, Japan at 3%, and South Korea at 1.5%[5]. As a result, their progress in achieving their climate goals will have a considerable impact on the overall success of the Paris Agreement.

   South Korea’s progress

   South Korea is implementing a diverse array of mitigation initiatives designed to revolutionize its energy, industrial, and transportation sectors. The nation has set its 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target to 40% below 2018 levels—724.44 million metric tons[1]. A central policy guiding South Korea's climate efforts is the Green New Deal, which seeks to facilitate the country's transition to a low-carbon and environmentally sustainable economy. Under the Green New Deal, the government is committed to phasing out coal-fired power plants and raising the proportion of renewable energy to 20% by 2030, a significant increase from 6% in 2019[6]. This ambitious objective is supported by investments in solar and wind energy. Additionally, aging coal-fired plants are being decommissioned or converted to natural gas.

   South Korea is championing a shift towards low-carbon alternatives in emissions-intensive industries such as steelmaking, petrochemicals, and cement production[1]. By implementing cleaner technologies and alternative materials like hydrogen and carbon capture solutions, the country aims to curb its industrial emissions and foster a low-carbon transition.

   Furthermore, South Korea's transportation sector is experiencing substantial change. The government has set a goal for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) to comprise 33% of all new vehicle sales by 2030[1]. Through investments in electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles, ships, and aircraft, South Korea is paving the way for a greener, more sustainable future.

Japan’s progress

   Japan's commitment to combating climate change is reflected in its holistic approach to meeting the goals outlined in the Paris Agreement. As a significant global emitter, the nation has vowed to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Additionally, it has set an ambitious interim target of decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 46% by 2030, using 2013 levels as a benchmark—1,342 million metric tons[7]. A fundamental aspect of Japan's climate change mitigation is the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, with the aim of increasing the share of renewables to 36-38% of its energy mix by 2030. This involves substantial investments in the research, development, and deployment of solar, wind, and hydrogen energy technologies to expedite the shift[1].

   Moreover, Japan acknowledges the potential of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology in mitigating climate change. The CCS entails capturing CO2 emissions from industrial processes and securely storing them deep underground to prevent their release into the atmosphere[7]. Japan's investments in CCS research and development focus on reducing the technology's costs and identifying appropriate storage sites.

China’s progress

   As the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and a key player in the global economy, China occupies a crucial role in the collective fight against climate change. Demonstrating its commitment to the Paris Agreement, the nation has established ambitious climate targets, such as peaking its CO2 emissions by 2030, and attaining carbon neutrality by 2060. To achieve these objectives, China is implementing various measures to shift its energy sector from fossil fuel reliance to a focus on renewable sources, aiming for renewables like solar and wind power to constitute approximately 50% of total electricity generation by 2023[8].

   China has made substantial progress in promoting green buildings—a crucial aspect of its climate strategy. Green buildings are designed according to the "green building evaluation standards," which focus on minimizing environmental impact through resource-efficient practices. These practices include energy and water conservation, waste reduction, and the use of sustainable construction materials[1]. 

   China is also refining its industrial structure to prioritize the development of industries with minimal carbon emissions and establish green, eco-friendly pillar sectors. The country has tightened control over energy-intensive industries since 2016 and has gradually stopped using outdated production methods, helping to quickly reduce surplus capacity[1]. By the end of 2018, China had removed over 150 million tons of steel overcapacity, achieving the 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) goal two years ahead of schedule[8]. 

Limitations

   While Korea, Japan, and China have made strides in their climate actions, their overall progress remains constrained by their continued reliance on coal, causing a slower transition to renewable energy sources. As of 2020, coal constituted approximately 40% of South Korea's energy mix, with renewable energy sources representing a mere 6%[9]. In South Korea, the government has set ambitious targets to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix, but the country's substantial coal consumption continues to be a significant obstacle in achieving those targets.

   In Japan, coal accounted for around 32% of total power generation in 2020, while renewables comprised only about 18% of the energy mix[9]. Although Japan has made efforts to expand its renewable energy capacity, the phasing out of nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster has led to a resurgence in the use of coal and other fossil fuels. This increased reliance on coal has slowed Japan's transition to a low-carbon energy system.

   China, as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and energy consumer, is heavily dependent on coal, which made up roughly 57% of its energy consumption in 2020[9]. Despite China's massive investments in renewable energy infrastructure, the nation's energy demand continues to grow rapidly. The transition from coal to renewable energy sources in China is further complicated by the country's vast coal reserves and the economic importance of the coal industry.

Consequences of failure

   The consequences of Korea, Japan, and China not fulfilling their Paris Agreement commitments could be disastrous for the planet. As significant contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, their lack of action might result in a substantial acceleration of global warming. This could trigger devastating effects such as more frequent and severe weather events, rising sea levels, and extensive ecological damage. According to the Global Carbon Project, these three nations were responsible for nearly 42% of global CO2 emissions in 2019[10].

   Moreover, not achieving the Paris Agreement goals could lead to trade implications and negatively impact the international standing of East Asian countries. Those that do not meet their climate commitments may face trade restrictions, such as carbon tariffs imposed by other nations dedicated to the Paris Agreement objectives. For instance, the European Union (EU) is considering the implementation of carbon tariffs on imports from countries that fail to reach their climate targets[5]. Such tariffs could significantly affect the economies of these nations by damaging their export industries and impeding economic growth. Additionally, these countries might be perceived as less reliable partners in the global fight against climate change, which could strain diplomatic relationships and potentially impact cooperation on other international matters.

   Finally, the inability of these nations to meet their climate commitments could have severe domestic repercussions. Failure could worsen air pollution and other environmental issues, leading to adverse effects on public health, food security, and water availability. For example, in Japan, not achieving climate goals could result in increased reliance on coal-fired power plants and nuclear energy, both of which carry environmental and public health risks. Japan's seafood industry, heavily affected by climate change and ocean acidification, might also suffer. Likewise, in Korea and China, not meeting climate goals could lead to heightened air pollution, exacerbating health issues such as respiratory diseases.

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   The importance of Korea, Japan, and China's performance in meeting their Paris Agreement commitments cannot be overstated, as their success is critical to global climate action. In the case of each of these nations, failure to accomplish their climate objectives could not only precipitate catastrophic environmental repercussions but also impair their global standing, potentially inciting trade complications and significant domestic ramifications. It is imperative that these nations continue to invest in low-carbon technologies and transition towards renewable energy sources to achieve their Paris Agreement targets. The year 2023 serves as a crucial turning point in the worldwide fight against climate change, with the GST evaluating collective achievements. The progress of Korea, Japan, and China in meeting their commitments under the Paris Agreement will be closely watched by the international community.

[1] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

[2] United Nations

[3] NRDC

[4] United Nations Environment Programme

[5] European Union

[6] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Republic of Korea 

[7] Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan

[8] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

[9] International Energy Agency

[10] Global Carbon Project